In the latest forecast, the combined PollyVote concludes that Clinton will garner 52.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.5% for Trump. For the Democrats this is the worst PollyVote forecast (at the same point in time in the election) since democrat John Kerry and republican George W. Bush ran for presidency 2004.
What the components say
There is relative disagreement among the six available component methods: Four predict a win for Clinton and two speculate that Trump will win.
Contrary to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the combined polls and the econometric models of 90.3 and 51.2% respectively.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 9.7% the aggregated polls deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Trump gained forty-three percentage point in the polls compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
With 53.3% in prediction markets the vote share for the Democrats is notably high when compared to past election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, prediction markets expected a vote share of 55.4% for Democratic candidate.