QuinnipiacQuinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 45.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from June 1 to June 5 with 1330 registered voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-2.7 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Connecticut polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.4%. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.