QuinnipiacQuinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll results
The results show that 45.0% of participants would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between June 1 and June 5. The sample size was 1330 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump. To compare: Only 45.8% was obtained by Clinton in the QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll on August 7, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.