The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 45.9% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will end up with 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to end up with 54.1% of the vote.
In New Hampshire, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.