North Carolina: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 53.6% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will end up with 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 46.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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