Fiscal model model: Trump with small lead

The Fiscal model model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.8%. In comparison, on August 3, Clinton was predicted to win 51.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 4.3 percentage points less and Trump has 4.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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