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DeSart model: Clinton with very clear lead in Illinois

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The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.4% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Illinois. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to gain 53.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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