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DeSart model in Louisiana: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 61.6% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was still predicted to collect 61.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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