The Time-for-change model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.7% for Clinton and 51.3% for Trump. In comparison, on August 3 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.1 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
Clinton has 3.8 percentage points less and Trump has 3.8 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.