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DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Florida


The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 52.1% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will end up with 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to gain only 48.0% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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