Results of a new national poll carried out by LA Times were published. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
LA Times poll results
The poll was carried out from July 30 to August 5 among 2205 participants. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-2.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 40.9 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 40.9 percentage points.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.0 percentage points less and Trump has 2.0 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.