The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 41.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to collect 58.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.