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Iowa: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead


The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.4% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was predicted to win 49.4% of the vote.

Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have often won similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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