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Jerome model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 45.7% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to collect 54.3% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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