Jerome model in Florida: Clinton with very clear lead
The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 49.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will win 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.0% of the vote.
In Florida, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, you should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.