ABC News published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ABC News poll results
This poll was conducted from August 1 to August 4, among a random sample of 815 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump. In the latest ABC News poll on July 20 Clinton obtained only 52.2%, while Trump obtained 47.8%.
Results vs. other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 44.7 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 44.7 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 1.8 percentage points more and Trump has 1.8 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.