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DeSart model: In Hawaii trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 29.9% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will win 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was predicted to gain 29.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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