Jerome model: Trails by a clear margin
The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 13.6% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was predicted to obtain 13.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Results vs. other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.