Jerome model: Trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 13.6% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was predicted to obtain 13.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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