Morning Consult published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Morning Consult poll results
The Internet poll was conducted from August 4 to August 5 with 2001 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-2.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump. In the latest Morning Consult poll on August 3 Clinton received only 53.0%, while Trump received 47.0%.
Results vs. other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 45.7 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 45.7 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.9 percentage points more and Trump has 2.9 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.