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DeSart model in California: Clinton with very clear lead


The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 40.1% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will end up with 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was predicted to achieve 40.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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