Arizona: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 57.2% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 42.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.