DeSart model in Alabama: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will collect 64.2% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, whereas Trump will win 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was still predicted to achieve 64.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.