IBD/TIPP poll: Trails by a comfortable margin
IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
IBD/TIPP poll results
The phone poll was conducted from July 29 to August 4 with 851 respondents. The margin of error is +/-3.4 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 44.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 44.4 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 1.6 percentage points more and Trump has 1.6 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.