Results of a new national poll carried out by Reuters were distributed. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
This poll was conducted from July 30 to August 3, among a random sample of 1072 participants. The sampling error is +/-3.5 points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 42.7 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 42.7 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 0.1 percentage points less and Trump has 0.1 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.