NBC News published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
NBC News poll results
The poll was conducted from July 31 to August 3. A total of 800 participants responded. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 45.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 45.6 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.8 percentage points more and Trump has 2.8 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.