FOX published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
FOX poll results
The phone poll was conducted between July 31 and August 2. The sample size was 1022 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 46.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 46.0 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.2 percentage points more and Trump has 3.2 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.