ABC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
ABC News poll results
This poll was conducted from August 1 to August 4, among a random sample of 815 participants. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 54.4% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 44.7 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 44.7 percentage points.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 1.6 percentage points more and Trump has 1.6 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.