McClatchy published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
McClatchy poll results
The poll was carried out from August 1 to August 3 with 983 respondents. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 59.3% for Clinton and 40.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 49.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 49.6 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% and Trump 47.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 6.8 percentage points more and Trump has 6.8 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is significant.