NBC News published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
NBC News poll results
The poll was in the field between July 31 and August 3. The sample size was 800 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 45.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 45.6 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.6 percentage points more and Trump has 2.6 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.