ABC News published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
ABC News poll results
The poll was carried out from August 1 to August 4 among 815 participants. The error margin is +/-4.0 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 54.4% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 1.4 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.4 percentage points. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 1.6 percentage points more and Trump has 1.6 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.