UPI/CVOTER released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
This poll was conducted via Internet from July 31 to August 6, among a random sample of 1036 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 53.8% for Clinton and 46.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 2.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.0 percentage points. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 1.0 percentage points more and Trump has 1.0 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.