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Sustained lead for Clinton in recent UPI/CVOTER poll


UPI/CVOTER released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

UPI/CVOTER poll results




This poll was conducted via Internet from July 31 to August 6, among a random sample of 1036 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 53.8% for Clinton and 46.2% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 2.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.0 percentage points. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 1.0 percentage points more and Trump has 1.0 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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