New McClatchy poll shows Clinton with 15 points lead
McClatchy published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
McClatchy poll results
The poll was carried out from August 1 to August 3 with 983 respondents. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 59.3% for Clinton and 40.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 3.5 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.5 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 6.5 percentage points more and Trump has 6.5 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.