Results of a new national poll administered by FOX were published. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
FOX poll results
The phone poll was in the field between July 31 and August 2. The sample size was 1022 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 46.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 46.0 percentage points.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.0 percentage points more and Trump has 3.0 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.