FOX published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
FOX poll results
This poll was conducted from July 31 to August 2, among a random sample of 1022 participants. The error margin is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.1 percentage points. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.9 percentage points more and Trump has 2.9 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.