Results of a new national poll conducted by IBD were distributed. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
The poll was carried out from July 29 to August 4 with 851 participants. The error margin is +/-3.4 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 44.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 44.4 percentage points.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 1.4 percentage points more and Trump has 1.4 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.