McClatchy published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
McClatchy poll results
The poll was conducted from August 1 to August 3 among 983 participants. The sampling error is +/-3.1 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 59.3% for Clinton and 40.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 49.6 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 49.6 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 6.5 percentage points more and Trump has 6.5 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is significant.