New IBD poll has trailing by 7 points
Results of a new national poll carried out by IBD were circulated. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
The poll was conducted from July 29 to August 4 among 851 participants. The error margin is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 1.3 percentage points more and Trump has 1.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.