Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
This poll was conducted from July 30 to August 3, among a random sample of 1072 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 42.7 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 42.7 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 0.3 percentage points less and Trump has 0.3 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.