Morning Consult published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Morning Consult poll results
The poll was conducted via Internet from August 4 to August 5 among 2001 participants. The margin of error is +/-2.2 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 45.7 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 45.7 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.7 percentage points more and Trump has 2.7 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is significant.