LA Times published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
LA Times poll results
This poll was conducted from July 30 to August 5, among a random sample of 2205 participants. The margin of error is +/-2.1 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 5.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 5.2 percentage points. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.2 percentage points less and Trump has 2.2 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is significant.