Results of a new national poll carried out by UPI/CVOTER were distributed. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
The poll was conducted from July 31 to August 6 via Internet. A total of 1036 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 53.8% for Clinton and 46.2% for Trump. For comparison: Only 53.2% was gained by Clinton in the UPI/CVOTER poll on August 7, for Trump this number was 46.8%.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 44.1 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 44.1 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 1.0 percentage points more and Trump has 1.0 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.