The Electoral-cycle model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton and 51.4% for Trump. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.2 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 4.2 percentage points less and Trump has 4.2 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.