The Time-for-change model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.7% for Clinton and 51.3% for Trump. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.1 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
Clinton has 4.1 percentage points less and Trump has 4.1 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.