The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect only 50.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.7 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.7 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 1.7 percentage points less and Trump has 1.7 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.