The Keys to the White House model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.5%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the recommended strategy look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.3 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 1.3 percentage points less and Trump has 1.3 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.