Putting the results in context

The Keys to the White House model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.5%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the recommended strategy look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.3 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 1.3 percentage points less and Trump has 1.3 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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