The Big-issue model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump. In comparison, on August 3 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results compared to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 3.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 3.1 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
Clinton has 2.0 percentage points less and Trump has 2.0 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.