The Keys to the White House model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton and 48.5% for Trump. In comparison, on August 3, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 48.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual index model. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.1 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 1.0 percentage points less and Trump has 1.0 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.