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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 52.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.8%. In comparison, on August 1 Trump was still predicted to obtain 48.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.4 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.3 percentage points less and Trump has 0.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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