538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead
The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 52.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.8%. In comparison, on August 1 Trump was still predicted to obtain 48.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.4 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 0.3 percentage points less and Trump has 0.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.