Jerome model: Trump with very clear lead in Texas

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 53.2% of the two-party vote share in Texas, whereas Trump will win 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was still predicted to achieve 53.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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