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Fair model shows Trump in the lead


The Fair model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 44.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 56.0%. In comparison, on August 3, Clinton was predicted to collect 56.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, you should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 4.8 percentage points, while Trump did better with 4.8 percentage points.

The Fair model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

Clinton has 8.5 percentage points less and Trump has 8.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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